Equity Outcome Model

Work backward from what you want to take home. Shared assumptions (your target, the company, the dilution path) apply to every scenario. Each scenario is a stake and the odds you give it, so you can compare them side by side.

This scenarioSaved with each log entry
10%
About 1 in 10
Shared assumptionsAll scenarios
Take-home pay you’d earn elsewhere, or the pay gap if the startup also pays you. Time saved measures the payout in years of this salary against the 4 years you’d work.
Dilution pathAll scenarios

Each row is the share of the company sold (or added to the option pool) in that event. Typical priced rounds dilute 15–25%.

FrictionsAll scenarios

Preferences: roughly the total investors put in, paid back before common splits the rest. Enter 0 to ignore. Amounts accept 250k, 5M, 1.2B.

Your stake at exit
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Exit needed
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Expected value
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Time saved
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Break-even odds
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Odds-adjusted exit
–

Payout by exit value

If it happens Weighted by odds Your target
Hover or drag across the chart to read any exit value.

Scenario log

Logging saves this scenario’s ownership and odds. Every row is recalculated with the shared assumptions, so change the target or dilution path once and the whole log updates. Pin a row as the baseline to compare the others against it.

ScenarioStake now → exitOddsExit neededvs todayExpected valueTime saved
(odds-weighted)		vs break-even

Dilution path

Simplified model. Payout = (stake at exit × (exit value − preferences) − exercise cost) × (1 − tax). Preferences are treated as paid first with everyone sharing the remainder, which is conservative at large exits where investors usually convert. Time saved = payout ÷ comparable salary − 4 years worked; the odds-weighted version uses expected value (target × odds). Break-even odds = 4 × comparable salary ÷ target, the odds at which odds-weighted time saved is zero. It ignores secondary sales, vesting cliffs, raises, and the time value of money. Not financial or tax advice.